On what terms should the war in Ukraine end: an analysis of global scenarios
Russia's war against Ukraine has been going on for more than three years, and the question of how to end it has become one of the most pressing issues in global politics. From Washington to Brussels, from Beijing to Ankara, state leaders, analysts, and military experts are looking for a formula for peace that would not only end the fighting but also guarantee stability in the region. Based on an analysis of videos, news, and blogs, several key scenarios for ending the war can be identified.
1. Peace on Ukraine's terms
This scenario envisages the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas, as well as security guarantees from international partners. President Zelensky has outlined five principles, including the withdrawal of Russian troops, compensation for damages, bringing those responsible to justice, security guarantees, and the preservation of sovereignty.
This approach is supported by the US, the UK, and most EU countries. However, it requires prolonged military resistance and diplomatic pressure on Russia.
2. Peace on Russia's terms
Russia has repeatedly voiced its demands: recognition of the annexation of Crimea, neutral status for Ukraine, restrictions on cooperation with NATO, and continued control over part of Donbas.
This scenario is unacceptable to Ukrainian society and contrary to international law. Its implementation would mean Ukraine's capitulation and set a precedent for aggression without punishment.
3. Compromise scenario involving international mediators
This option involves negotiations with the participation of the US, China, Turkey, and the UN. Possible conditions include a gradual withdrawal of troops, international administration of disputed territories, a postponed vote on the status of Crimea, and security guarantees for both sides.
4. Military end to the war
This scenario involves victory for one side on the battlefield. Ukraine continues its counteroffensive, while Russia continues its mobilization and escalation. The Kremlin is not ready to compromise, and Ukraine is not ready to make concessions.
A military end may be long and costly, but it can ensure a just peace if Ukraine receives sufficient support.
5. Psychological and informational pressure
In addition to military action, the information war plays an important role. Ukrainian intelligence officials note that Russia is already preparing for the end of the war but wants to save face. This opens up opportunities for informational pressure, sanctions, isolation, and internal collapse of the regime.
Which scenario is most realistic?
Based on an analysis of sources, the most plausible scenario appears to be a gradual transition to peace on Ukraine's terms, with elements of compromise but without concessions on sovereignty issues. Russia may agree to end the war if it faces internal crisis and international isolation.
Conclusion
Ending the war in Ukraine is not only a matter of diplomacy, but also a struggle for justice, freedom, and international order. The world must choose not just peace, but the right kind of peace — one that does not reward the aggressor but protects the victim. Ukraine deserves a victory that will bring not only a ceasefire but also security guarantees, restoration of territories, and justice for all victims.
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